How can we achieve food security in the 21st century? What are the environmental challenges of our current food system and what are the alternatives? Is the model of industrial agriculture outdated, and is it time for a paradigm shift towards agroecology? Who will feed the world? (Hand-out of a lecture given at Leuven University).
The coming food crisis
We are facing a global food crisis. For the first time in decades, the number of undernourished people in the world is rising (FAO et al., 2018 & 2020).[1]1 After a century of decline, food prices are on the rise (UNEP, 2009). Almost 1 out of 10 people is hungry today (FAO et al., 2020).[2]2 According to the WHO (2020) 45% of deaths among children under 5 years of age are linked to undernutrition. More than 3 billion people might not be able to afford[3]3[3 healthy diets, leading not only to undernourishment, but also an epidemic of overweight and obesity (FAO et al., 2018 & 2020).[4]4 This has been called the “double burden of malnutrition”. The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP, 2009) predicts that by 2050 food production might fall up to 25% short of demand. The UNEP names as main causes for this trend rising world population,[5]5 climate change, increasing water scarcity, land degradation and meat consumption.[6]
 |
| Hunger on the rise again (FAO, 2020) |
Let us have a closer look at these factors. Climate change is causing increased climate variability, and more climate extremes and pests (IPCC, 2019; FAO et al., 2018; UNEP, 2009). Half to two thirds of the world’s population experience severe water scarcity for at least one month a year (Burek et al., 2016, Mekonnen & Hoekstra, 2016).[7] According to the FAO “33 percent of land is [...] degraded[8] due to erosion, salinization, compaction, acidification and chemical pollution,” erosion being the main cause of soil degradation[9] (FAO & ITPS, 2015, p. xix). “Soils are fundamental to life on Earth but human pressures on soil resources are reaching critical limits.” (FAO, 2015a, p. 4) We might only have 60 years of harvests left! (FAO, 2015b)
 |
| Water scarcity across the world (Mekonnen & Hoekstra, 2016) |
The production of animal food is more resource-intensive than plant-based food (Pimentel & Pimentel, 2008). Animals need food to grow and consume many times more calories than they produce.[10] Half of the world’s cereals are fed to livestock (FAOSTAT, 2020b), which would provide enough calories to feed 3-3.5 billion people (Pimentel & Pimentel, 2008, p. 70; UNEP, 2009, p. 27). Yet meat and dairy only provide us with 20% of our calories. Moreover livestock needs land to graze and it requires again lots of land, water[11] and fertilizer to grow its food.[12] Finally, they produce a lot of manure. All this together makes animal farming one the main causes of soil degradation, water pollution and other environmental problems (FAO, 2006).
 |
| Land use for animal vs. crop farming (Our World in Data) |
Intensive agriculture is currently using up a huge amount of resources, putting increasing pressure on our living environment (FAO, 2011; Pimentel & Pimentel, 2008). The agricultural sector is responsible for 20-35% human-induced greenhouse gas emissions according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2019), although the actual emissions of especially the livestock sector could be much higher still (Goodland & Anhang, 2009; Searchinger et al., 2018). Agriculture takes up 90% of our fresh water use (Mekonnen & Hoekstra, 2011) and 50-60% of all habitable land (IPCC, 2019; FAOSTAT, 2020c&d). It is the leading cause of deforestation worldwide (Boucher et al., 2011).
 |
| Agriculture is possibly humanity's biggest impact on the environment |
Two Paradigms
So how can we feed the 11 billion people (UN, 2020) that are projected to live on this planet by the end of the century?[13] Two competing paradigms[14] claim to have the answer: agroindustry (industrial agriculture) and agroecology. Let us have a look at the principles on which both are based and their inherent sustainability.
 |
| In the Green Revolution yields increased without much increase in farmed land (UNEP, 2009) |
 |
| Increased energy input lead to increase in yield (Pimentel & Pimentel, 2008) |
[H]umans have allowed environmental resources to degrade. As noted, we have been offsetting this degradation with fertilizers, irrigation, and other massive inputs—all based on fossil energy. Thus, we have been substituting a nonrenewable resource for a renewable resource.
The UNEP (2009, p. 5) writes:
Simply cranking up the fertilizer and pesticide-led production methods of the 20th century is unlikely to address the challenge. It will increasingly undermine the critical natural inputs and nature-based services for agriculture such as healthy and productive soils; the water and nutrient recycling of forests to pollinators such as bees and bats.
On a deeper level, industrial agriculture tries to create an environment which is human-controlled and stops natural regenerative processes, which are seen as ‘weeds’ and ‘pests’. One can wonder however, whether the soil and the environment can be seen as static ingredients to what almost looks like a chemical experiment. Ecological activist Vandana Shiva (1991, p. 15) puts it very succinctly:
The Green Revolution was based on the assumption that technology is a superior substitute for nature, and hence a means of producing growth, unconstrained by nature’s limits.
Agroecology however, starts from the dynamics and abundance of natural ecosystems. There exists a delicate balance between all natural processes. Disrupting this system easily leads to imbalances. As all elements keep each other in check, undermining any one of these elements can lead to pests, soil degeneration, drought or other adverse outcomes. Ecosystems continuously cycle nutrients and nothing goes to waste. The more one moves away from the natural flow of things, the more energy one needs to put into the system to keep it going.
 |
| Ernst Goetsch's agro-ecological 'syntropic' farm was able to turn degraded dry land back into forest while at the same time producing higher yields than industrial farming systems |
Agroecology tries to understand the natural functioning of the ecosystem and work with it, rather than against it. While agroindustry tries to minimize the use of land and manpower by using (and wasting[20]) an ever increasing amount of resources, agroecology on the other hand tries to decrease inputs and maximize efficient usage of available resources. The focus is not necessarily on high tech solutions, but just as much on traditional and indigenous knowledge and user innovation. Solutions are local and adapted to the context. Diversity is favored over monocultures as diverse ecosystems are more resilient to pests, natural disasters and other disturbances. Rather than using biotechnology to develop new breeds, it tries to maximally use existing biodiversity (while at the same time trying to prevent its decline). Regenerative agricultural practices not only stop degrading ecosystems, but can actively work to restore them.[21] The FAO (2014, p. 8) defines agroecology as:
[Agroecology] is based on bottom-up and territorial processes, helping to deliver contextualised solutions to local problems. Agroecological innovations are based on the co-creation of knowledge, combining science with the traditional, practical and local knowledge of producers. By enhancing their autonomy and adaptive capacity, agroecology empowers producers and communities as key agents of change. Rather than tweaking the practices of unsustainable agricultural systems, agroecology seeks to transform food and agricultural systems, addressing the root causes of problems in an integrated way and providing holistic and long-term solutions. This includes an explicit focus on social and economic dimensions of food systems. Agroecology places a strong focus on the rights of women, youth and indigenous peoples.
The message seems clear: we cannot continue business as usual. And while it is true that conventional organic farming produces about one quarter lower yields than industrial farming (de Ponti et al., 2012; Seufert et al., 2012), with the right expertise, it is possible to design high-producing agro-ecosystems that require very little external resources (e.g. Mollison, 1988).[22] The call for more sustainable farming practices is growing louder and louder (FAO, 2014; IPCC, 2019; UNCTAD,[23] 2013; UNEP, 2009). The UN (2020) writes in its Sustainable Development Goal for ‘zero hunger’ to:
Ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters and that progressively improve land and soil quality.
Maintain the genetic diversity of seeds, cultivated plants and farmed and domesticated animals and their related wild species, including through soundly managed and diversified seed and plant banks at the national, regional and international levels, and promote access to and fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the utilization of genetic resources and associated traditional knowledge, as internationally agreed.
 |
| Are we going towards a world full of fresh local, agro-ecological vegetables? |
Notes
1 Direct causes of this are an increase in conflicts, climate-related shocks and economic slowdown. However, a more general questioning of the sustainability of our food systems is growing. Another cause which is leading to short term food insecurity is the COVID-19 pandemic, which is disrupting food supply chains and leaving many without reduced income and. It might cause an increase of around 100 million in people who are undernourished. For more on the effects of COVID-19 on food security, see Global Network against Food Crises & FSIN (2020).
2 An estimated 690 million people in 2019. The number has been on the rise since 2014.
3 Malnourishment is, more often than not, also an economic issue.
4 Nearly 2 billion adults are overweight or obese, with the strongest prevelance in North America. Other causes are insufficient exercise and unhealthy eating patterns (FAO et al., 2018; Popkin, 2006; WHO, 2020), often containing a lot of animal products seems (Greger & Stone, 2015; Popkin, 2006).
5 For the latest statistics on world population see UN (2019).
6 For data on meat consumption see FAOSTAT (2020a). Another cause, which falls beyond the scope of this text, is the increased production of biofuels, which puts higher pressure on agricultural land.
7 According to Mekonnen & Hoekstra half a billion face severe water scarcity all year round.
8 According to UNEP (2009, p. 40) yearly 20,000-50,000km2 of land is lost through degredation. Soils do more than just grow food. They have a complex role in the ecosystem and the water cycle. They also store more carbon than all above ground vegetation (FAO & ITPS, 2015).
9 Erosion is causing a loss of 25-35 billion tonnes of soil yearly (Borrelli et al., 2017; FAO & ITPS, 2015). According to the IPCC (2019, p. 5) “[s]oil erosion from agricultural fields is estimated to be currently 10 to 20 times (no tillage) to more than 100 times (conventional tillage) higher than the soil formation rate.” Further reading: IPBES (2018); Pimentel & Pimentel (2008, pp. 201-219). Already in the first half of the 20th century Sir Albert Howard (1943) warned of the deleterious effects of modern industrial agriculture on soil quality. He is considered to be one of the founding fathers of the organic agriculture movement.
10 Farmed aimals need to eat 5 to 25 kg of food to ‘produce’ 1 kg of food for the consumer. Cattle has by far the least efficient ‘feed conversion ratio’. (Herrero et al., 2013; Kraussman et al., 2008; Mottet et al., 2017; Smil, 2011)
11 Beef tops the list and needs on average 15,400 l per kg (Mekonnen & Hoekstra, 2010).
12 Livestock production takes up 70% of all agricultural land according to the FAO (2006).
13 A problem that we do not go into here is food waste. The FAO (2013) estimates that one third of the world’s food is wasted, which is enough to feed 3 billion people.
14 The term ‘paradigm’ is here used roughly in the sense given to it by Thomas Kuhn (1962).
15 Interestingly, the pesticides and herbicides that fueled the rise of industrial agriculture were developed with the help of the technological advancements that came out of the war machine and helped produce bombs and nerve gas.
16 One could wonder whether modern farming is actually that profitable, as the system is supported by huge government subsidies. According to the OECD (2020) 50 of the world’s leading economies spend 600 billion EUR per year supporting the agriculture sector.
17 Further reading on factory farming: Lymbery & Oakeshott (2014); Singer (2015, pp. 95-158).
18 “Global agricultural production increased as much as threefold in 50 years, with only 12 percent growth in the farmed area.” (FAO, 2014, p. 8).
19 Resource use probably grew much more than actual yields, as plants can only take up so many nutrients. (Pimentel & Pimentel, 2008, pp. 137-159)
20 “In China, for example, the uptake efficiency of mineral fertilizer is about 26-28 percent for rice, wheat and maize and less than 20 percent for vegetable crops. The rest is simply “lost to the environment”, resulting in high rates of nitrate contamination of water.” (FAO, 2014, p. 20). A large amount of fertilizer is lost in this way (KU Leuven, 2015, pp. 23-25).
21 Some tentative research calculates that a switch to regenerative organic agriculture could sequester all of our annual CO2 emissions. (Rodale, 2014).
22 Further reading: Eisenstein (2018); FAO (2014); Holmgren (2002); Pimentel & Pimentel (2008, pp. 21-56); Shiva (1991 & 2016). We have not delved into the socio-political impact of agro-industry and agro-ecology in the Global South. Interesting case studies are Shiva (1991) and IPES Food (International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems) (2020).
23 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
Bibliography
Borrelli, P., Robinson, D. A., Fleischer, L. R., Lugato, E., Ballabio, C., Alewell, C. ... Panagos, P. (2017). An assessment of the global impact of 21st century land use change on soil erosion. Nature Communications, 8, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02142-7
Boucher, D., Elias, P., Lininger, K., May-Tobin, C., Roquemore, S., & Saxon, E. (2011). The Root of the Problem: What's driving tropical deforestation today? Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists. Retrieved from https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/UCS_RootoftheProblem_DriversofDeforestation_FullReport.pdf
de Ponti, T., Rijk, B., & van Ittersum, M. K. (2012). The crop yield gap between organic and conventional agriculture. Agricultural Systems, 108, 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2011.12.004
Eisenstein, C. (2018). Climate: A new story. Berkeley, CA: North Atlantic.
FAO. (2006). Livestock’s long shadow: Environmental issues and options. Rome, Italy: Author. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/3/a0701e/a0701e.pdf
FAO. (2011). The state of the world’s land and water resources for food and agriculture: Managing systems at risk. Rome, Italy: Author. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/3/i1688e/i1688e.pdf
FAO. (2013). Food wastage footprint: Impacts on natural resources. Rome, Italy: Author. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/3/i3347e/i3347e.pdf
FAO. (2014). Building a common vision for sustainable food and agriculture. Rome, Italy: Author. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/3/a-i3940e.pdf
FAO. (2015a). Revised world soil charter [PDF file]. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4965e.pdf
FAO. (2015b). International Year of Soil conference. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/soils-2015/events/detail/en/c/338738/
FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, & WHO. (2018). The state of food security and nutrition in the world 2018: Building climate resilience for food security and nutrition. Rome, Italy: Author. Retrieved from https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/English___The_State_of_Food_Security_and_Nutrition_in_the_World_2018_-_Full_Report.pdf
FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, & WHO. (2020). The state of food security and nutrition in the world 2020: Transforming food systems for affordable health systems. Rome, Italy: Author. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/3/ca9692en/CA9692EN.pdf
FAO & ITPS. (2015). Status of the world’s soil resources: Main report. Rome, Italy: FAO. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/3/i5199e/i5199e.pdf
FAOSTAT. (2020a). Livestock primary [Data file]. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL
FAOSTAT. (2020b). New food balances [Data file]. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FBS
FAOSTAT. (2020c). Land use [Data file]. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL
FAOSTAT. (2020d). Land cover [Data file]. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/LC
Global Network against Food Crises & Food Security Information Network. (2020). Global Report on Food Crises 2020 September update: In times of COVID-19. Rome, Italy: FSIN. Retrieved from https://www.wfp.org/publications/global-report-food-crises-update-times-covid-19-september-2020
Goodland, R., & Anhang, J. (2009). Livestock and climate change: What if the key actors in climate change are... cows, pigs and chickens? World Watch, 22(6), 10-19.
Greger, M., & Stone, G. (2015). How not to die: Discover the foods scientifically proven to prevent and reverse disease. New York, NY: Flatiron Books.
Herrero, M., HavlÃk, P., Valinc, H., Notenbaert, A., Rufino, M. C., Thornton, P. K., … Obersteiner, M. (2013). Biomass use, production, feed efficiencies, and greenhouse gas emissions from global livestock systems, PNAS, 110(52), 20888–20893.
Holmgren, D. (2002). Permaculture: Principles & pathways beyond sustainability. Hampshire, UK: Permanent.
Howard, A. (1943). An agricultural testament. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
IPBES. (2018). The assessment report on land degradation and restoration. Bonn, Germany: Author.
IPCC. (2019). Climate change and land. Geneva, Switzerland: Author. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/
IPES Food (2020). The added value(s) of agroecology: Unlocking the potential for transition in West Africa. Brussels, Belgium: Author. Retrieved from http://www.ipes-food.org/_img/upload/files/IPES-Food_FullReport_WA_EN.pdf
Kraussman, F., Erb, K. H., Gingrich, S., Lauk C., & Haberl, H. (2008). Global patterns of socioeconomic biomass flows in the year 2000: A comprehensive assessment of supply, consumption and constraints. Ecological Economics, 65, 471-487. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.07.012
KU Leuven Metaforum. (2015). Voedselproductie en voedselzekerheid: De onvolmaakte waarheid. Leuven, Belgium: KU Leuven.
Kuhn, T. S. (1962). The structure of scientific revolutions. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago.
Lymbery, P., & Oakeshott, I. (2014). Farmageddon: The true cost of cheap meat. London, UK: Bloomsbury.
Mekonnen, M. M., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2010). The green, blue and gray water footprint of farm animals and animal products (Vol. 1). Delft, The Netherlands: UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education. Retrieved from https://waterfootprint.org/media/downloads/Report-48-WaterFootprint-AnimalProducts-Vol1.pdf
Mekonnen, M. M., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2016). Four billion people facing severe water scarcity. Science Advances, 2(2), e1500323. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500323
Mollison, B. (1988). Permaculture: A designers’ manual (2nd ed.). Sisters Creek, Australia: Tagari.
Mottet, A., de Haan, C., Falcuccia, A., Tempio, G., Opio, C., & Gerber, P. (2017). Livestock: On our plates or eating at our table? A new analysis of the feed/food debate. Global Food Security, 14, 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2017.01.001
OECD. (2020). Agricultural policy monitoring and evaluation 2020. Paris, France: Author. https://doi.org/10.1787/928181a8-en
Pimentel, D., & Pimentel, M. H. (2008). Food, energy and society (3rd ed.). Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
Popkin, B. M. (2006). Global nutrition dynamics: The world is shifting rapidly toward a diet linked with noncommunicable diseases. The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 84(2), 289–298. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajcn/84.2.289
Rodale Institute. (2014). Regenerative organic agriculture and climate change: A down-to-earth solution to global warming [PDF file]. Retrieved from https://rodaleinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/rodale-white-paper.pdf
Searchinger, T. D., Wirsenius, S., Beringer, T., & Dumas, P. (2018). Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change. Nature, 564, 249-253. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0757-z
Seufert, V., Ramankutty, N., & Foley, J. (2012). Comparing the yields of organic and conventional agriculture. Nature, 485, 229-232. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11069
Singer, P. (2015). Animal liberation (Rev. ed.). London, UK: The Bodley Head.
Shiva, V. (1991). The violence of the Green Revolution: Third World agriculture, ecology and politics. London, UK: Zed.
Shiva, V. (2016). Who really feeds the world: The failures of agribusiness and the promise of agroecology. Berkeley, CA: North Atlantic Books
Smil, V. (2011). Harvesting the biosphere: The human impact. Population and Development Review, 37(4): 613–636.
WHO. (2020). Malnutrition. Retrieved from https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/malnutrition
UN. (2019). World population prospects. Retrieved from https://population.un.org/wpp/
UN. (2020). Goal 2: Zero hunger. In Sustainable development goals. Retrieved from https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/hunger/
UNCTAD. (2013). Wake up before it is too late: Make agriculture truly sustainable for food security in a changing climate. Geneva, Switzerland: UN. Retrieved from https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/ditcted2012d3_en.pdf
UNEP. (2009). The environmental food crisis: The environment’s role in averting future food crises. Nairobi, Kenya: Author. Retrieved from https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/report/environmental-food-crisis
Comments
Post a Comment